A counterfactual study of the Charge of the Light Brigade

Abstract

We use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. We first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge’s outcome. We then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge, and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all of the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory.