A Study of Soccer Space Gain in Pass Sequences using Logistic Regression

Abstract

Some pass sequences open up more space on the pitch than others. Several studies about space gain in soccer have been performed in the past, but the relationship between space gain and the ability to score a goal has not been established yet. This research aims to predict goal occurrence by using total space gain for each pass sequence as the explanatory variable in logistic regression. Combining event and tracking data from the 2019 regular season of Chinese Super League (CSL), space quality can be calculated. We implemented space quality calculation from for 237 matches in the 2019 CSL dataset. Space quality is defined as the product of likelihoods that a team can gain control at a given location and time and the defending team can impede scoring attempts. The research demonstrated that for every unit the total space gain increased in a given pass sequence, the scoring odds increased by 23%. This finding showcases that pass sequences that create space are more likely to help in scoring, which is consistent with real-life soccer events. Combining the space occupation gain and probability of scoring a goal in every pass sequence, a team could make an informed decision of how they should position each player in a given scenario.