Recent Submissions

  • Influence of anticipated and actual grades on studying 

    Armstrong, Michael J.; MacKenzie, H.F. (Herb) (Elsevier, 2017-03)
    This study explores two questions regarding differences between students’ anticipated and actual grades in university courses: what factors contribute to those differences arising, and which of those differences influence ...
  • A Stochastic Salvo Model Analysis of the Battle of the Coral Sea 

    Armstrong, Michael J.; Powell, Michael B. (Military Operations Research Society (MORS), 2005)
    In this work we study the Battle of the Coral Sea using a stochastic version of the salvo combat model. We begin by estimating the range of probable alternative results for the battle, given the forces employed; i.e., if ...
  • To repeat or not to repeat a course 

    Armstrong, Michael J.; Biktimirov, Ernest N. (Taylor & Francis, 2013)
    The difficult transition from high school to university means that many students need to repeat (retake) one or more of their university courses. This paper examines the performance of students who were repeating first-year ...
  • Arbitration using the closest offer principle of arbitrator behaviour 

    Armstrong, Michael J.; Hurley, William J. (Elsevier, 2002)
    In this paper we introduce a model of arbitration decision making which generalizes several previous models of both conventional arbitration and final offer arbitration. We derive the equilibrium offers that risk neutral ...
  • Effects of lethality on naval combat models 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Wiley, 2004)
    In the context of both discrete time salvo models and continuous time Lanchester models we examine the effect on naval combat of lethality: that is, the relative balance between the offensive and defensive attributes of ...
  • A comparison of arbitration procedures for risk averse disputants 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Wiley, 2004)
    We propose an arbitration model framework that generalizes many previous quantitative models of final offer arbitration, conventional arbitration, and some proposed alternatives to them. Our model allows the two disputants ...
  • A stochastic salvo model for naval surface combat 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Institute For Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), 2005)
    In this work we propose a stochastic version of the salvo model for modern naval surface combat. We derive expressions for the mean and variance of surviving force strengths and for the probabilities of the possible salvo ...
  • Effective attacks in the salvo combat model: salvo sizes and quantities of targets 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Wiley, 2007)
    This article considers two related questions of tactics in the context of the salvo model for naval missile combat. For a given set of targets, how many missiles should be fired to produce an effective attack? For a given ...
  • A survey of the machine interference problem 

    Haque, Lani; Armstrong, Michael J. (Elsevier, 2007)
    This paper surveys the research published on the machine interference problem since the 1985 review by Stecke & Aronson. After introducing the basic model, we discuss the literature along several dimensions. We then note ...
  • Refighting Pickett’s Charge: mathematical modeling of the Civil War battlefield 

    Armstrong, Michael J.; Sodergren, Steven E. (Wiley, 2015)
    Objective. We model Pickett’s Charge at the Battle of Gettysburg to see whether the Confederates could have achieved victory by committing more infantry, executing a better barrage, or facing a weaker defense. Methods. ...
  • A counterfactual study of the Charge of the Light Brigade 

    Connors, David; Armstrong, Michael J.; Bonnett, John (Taylor & Francis, 2015-06)
    We use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. We first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge’s outcome. We then adjust ...
  • The salvo combat model with a sequential exchange of fire 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Palgrave, 2014)
    This paper develops a version of the stochastic salvo combat model in which the exchange of fire is sequential, rather than simultaneous. This sequential-fire version is built by modifying the equations in the original ...
  • A preliminary study of grade forecasting for students 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Wiley, 2013)
    This experiment enabled undergraduate business students to better assess their progress in a course by quantitatively forecasting their own end-of-course grades. This innovation provided them with predictive feedback in ...
  • A verification study of the stochastic salvo combat model 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Springer, 2011)
    When the stochastic version of the salvo combat model was designed, several assumptions and approximations were made to keep its mathematical structure relatively simple. This paper examines the impact of those simplifications ...
  • The salvo combat model with area fire 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Wiley Periodicals, Inc., 2013-12)
    This paper analyzes versions of the salvo model of missile combat where area fire is used by one or both sides in a battle. While these models share some properties with the area fire Lanchester model and the aimed fire ...
  • Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system 

    Armstrong, Michael J. (Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), 2014-09)
    This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, ...

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