Abstract:
Italy is currently experiencing profound political
change. One aspect of this change involves the decline in
electoral support for the Italian Christian Democratic Party
(DC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI), now the Democratic
Party of the Left (PDS). Signs of the electoral decline of
both parties began to appear in the late 1970s and early 1980s
and accelerated in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
The pr imar y purpos e of th is thes is is to expla i n the
electoral decline of the DC and PCI/PDS in the last decade.
The central question being addressed in this thesis is the
following: What factors contributed to the decline in
electoral support for the DC and PCI? In addition, the thesis
attempts to better comprehend the change in magni tude and
direction of the Italian party system.
The thesis examines the central question within an
analytical framework that consists of models explaining
electoral change in advanced industrial democracies and in
Italy. A review of the literature on electoral change in Italy
reveals three basic models: structural (socioeconomic and
demographic factors), subcultural (the decline of the Catholic
and Communist subcultures), and pol i tical (factors such as
party strategy, and the crisis and collapse of communism in
iv
Eastern Europe and the former soviet Union and the end to the
Cold War).
Significant structural changes have occurred in Italy,
but they do not invariably hurt or benefit either party. The
Catholic and Communist subcultures have declined in size and
strength, but only gradually. More importantly, the study
discovers that the decline of communism and party strategy
adversely affected the electoral performances of the DC and
PC!.
The basic conclusion is that political factors primarily
and directly contributed to the decline in electoral support
for both parties, while societal factors (structural and
subcultural changes) played a secondary and indirect role.
While societal factors do not contribute directly to the
decline in electoral support for both parties, they do provide
the context within which both parties operated.
In addition, the Italian party system is becoming more
fragmented and traditional political parties are losing
electoral support to new political movements, such as the Lega
Nord (LN-Northern League) and the Rete (Network). The growing
importance of the North-South and centre-periphery cleavages
suggests that the Italian party system, which is traditionally
based on religious and ideological cleavages, may be changing.
